You can download the following files:
In addition to the user's guide, the two following papers give a lot of details about the Markovian models computed by MARCH:
Copyright: The rights of MARCH belong to André Berchtold. The software can be freely copied, distributed and used, but it cannot be modified or sold without authorization.
You can download the following files:
The MTD model was introduced first in
Raftery, A. (1985) A Model for High-order Markov Chains, JRSS B, 47 (3), 528-539.
A complete description of the model and of the optimization method used in GMTD is given in
Berchtold, A. (2001) Estimation in the Mixture Transition Distribution model. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 22 (4), 379-397. Preprint: Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Technical Report 352 (Postcript file)
Another good reference is
Berchtold, A., Raftery, A. (1999) The Mixture Transition Distribution (MTD) Model for High-Order Markov Chains and Non-Gaussian Time Series. Forthcoming in Statistical Science. Preprint: Technical Report 360, Department of Statistics, University of Washington.
Copyright: The rights of GMTD belong to André Berchtold. The software can be freely copied, distributed and used, but it cannot be modified or sold without authorization.
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